Simulator-L™
Scenario & Modelling Engine
A Monte Carlo enabled enrolment and site activation simulator that projects enrolment performance, study timelines, and scenario outcomes - quantifying execution risk before capital is committed. Replace static spreadsheet timelines with probabilistic intelligence.
What it does
Three engines. Complete scenario intelligence.
01
Monte Carlo Simulation
Run thousands of iterations per simulation to produce probability distributions for enrolment timelines, site activation sequences, and study completion scenarios - not just single-point estimates.
02
Multi-Level Specification
Set parameters at study, country, and site level - overall target enrolment, country-specific regulatory timelines, individual site activation rates, and screen failure assumptions.
03
KPI Dashboards
Track total enrolment duration, FPI, LPI, screening volumes, dropout projections, and treatment milestones through custom visuals designed specifically for feasibility and project management workflows.
The methodology
Monte Carlo Intelligence
Designed by feasibility data scientists and project management professionals with hands-on experience across hundreds of clinical trials - the same domain-first design philosophy as Geo Matrix™ and the EKO™ logic.
01
Scenario Testing
Run 'what-if' analyses - what if site activation in Brazil is delayed 3 months? How does adding 5 sites in Poland affect enrolment probability? Test recovery scenarios before committing resources.
02
Multiple Predictive Models
Run and compare multiple predictive models side-by-side to evaluate different strategic scenarios. Use default mode for rapid assessments or advanced settings for detailed parameter tuning.
03
Probability Curves
Generate visual outputs including probability distributions, enrolment curves, and scenario comparisons that can be used directly in governance reviews, board updates, and strategic presentations.
For Program Planning & Governance
Take probabilistic enrolment forecasts into governance. Instead of 'we estimate 18 months', show 'there is an 80% probability of completing enrolment within 18 months based on 10,000 simulated scenarios.'
For Active Studies
Not just for planning - teams overseeing active studies can model projected vs. actual enrolment, test recovery scenarios when sites underperform, and give stakeholders data-backed timeline updates.
Quantify execution risk before capital is committed.
How it works
From parameters to probability curves.
Configure Your Study
Define your study parameters - target enrolment, geographic scope, site counts, regulatory timelines, and screen failure assumptions - at study, country, or site level.
Run Simulations
The Monte Carlo engine runs thousands of iterations, modelling enrolment trajectories, site activation sequences, and dropout scenarios to produce probability distributions.
Strategy-Ready Output
Receive probability curves, KPI dashboards, and scenario comparisons in a format your study team, project managers, and governance reviews can use immediately.
Tested & repeatable
An honest picture of your plan's risk.
Up to 10K
Iterations Per Run
A probability distribution of outcomes, not a point estimate
PoS %
Probability of Success
The likelihood of hitting your target LPI - quantified
<1%
Run-to-Run Variance
Repeatable results; copy the run seed to reproduce exactly
In a large Phase III oncology case study, a uniform, static plan showed a 100% probability of hitting the target LPI. Applying realistic site heterogeneity - fast and slow enrollers, seasonality - dropped it to 76.4%. The static view confirms a plan is mathematically sound; the simulation shows whether it is robust.
Built for
Who uses Simulator-L™
Clinical Development Teams
Stress-test the plan before the spend. Quantify the realistic range of enrolment and timeline outcomes for pivotal and Phase III programs - before capital is committed.
Program & Study Managers
Model projected vs. actual enrolment on active studies, test recovery scenarios when sites underperform, and give stakeholders data-backed timeline updates.
Feasibility & Strategy
Run scenario planning and what-if analyses - stress-test country strategies, site counts, and timeline assumptions across the portfolio.
Outsourcing & Oversight
Interrogate CRO timelines with an independent simulation. A Probability of Success against the target LPI turns "trust us" into a number you can govern against.
The evidence
Read the proof behind the product.
Ready to see Simulator-L™ in action?
Book a demo and see how Simulator-L™ replaces static spreadsheet timelines with Monte Carlo-powered scenario intelligence.